Energy markets are riding a rollercoaster in 2026 - and your business is paying for it.
We understand how it feels to be at the mercy of global events beyond your control. It's an unnerving situation at best, highly damaging for business at worst.
Geopolitical events in the Middle East continue to affect your small business from afar, but how long can we expect prices to remain high?
Troo energy trading expert Melvyn Wilson offers weekly guidance to help break down the major forces driving wholesale energy prices this week.
TL;DR:
US-Iran conflict remains the dominant driver of prices.
Peace talks are pushing prices down.
Liquefied natural gas (LNG) supply remains down.
Week commencing Monday 22nd June 2026
Energy prices have moved sharply lower following progress on a US–Iran peace agreement.
UK gas prices fell to multi-week lows as expectations grew around the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and the potential return of oil and LNG supply.
The latter part of last week saw a partial reversal, with prices rising on disrupted peace talks, high temperatures across Europe and an unexpected outage at a major Qatari gas facility.
Overall, while risk premiums have softened, markets remain highly sensitive to Middle East developments and LNG supply risks.
Geopolitical events: US-Iran peace talks have pushed prices down amid the signing of an interim deal. Uncertainty remains, however.
The market is expected to remain highly volatile in the near term.
While diplomatic progress between the US and Iran could continue to ease prices, the situation remains fragile, with any escalation capable of rapidly tightening supply expectations again.
Key watchpoints include the sustained reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, the timeline for Qatari LNG supply recovery, and ongoing Middle East conflict developments.
Energy prices fell significantly on geopolitical de-escalation but remain above pre-conflict levels
Businesses approaching their contract renewal may want to monitor the market closely over the coming weeks, particularly if geopolitical tensions re-escalate.
Those on flexible contracts should prepare for continued volatility heading into the second half of 2026.
The world is changing. It can be scary. You know you need to stay on top of the news, but that can be difficult while focusing on running your business and serving your customers.
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Melvyn Wilson: Jun 22, 2026 2:00:00 PM
Energy markets are riding a rollercoaster in 2026 - and your business is paying for it.
You didn't go into business to become an expert in business energy. In 2026, it feels like you need to be one.
You have probably paid Value Added Tax (VAT) on something already today.
Melvyn Wilson