Energy market update: What UK businesses need to know this week

Energy markets are riding a rollercoaster in 2026 - and your business is paying for it.

We understand how it feels to be at the mercy of global events beyond your control. It's unnerving at best, and highly damaging to businesses at worst.

Geopolitical events in the Middle East continue to affect your small business from afar, but how long can we expect prices to remain high?

Troo CEO Andrew Richardson offers weekly guidance to help break down the major forces driving wholesale energy prices this week. 

TL;DR:

• US-Iran conflict remains the dominant driver of prices.

• Tensions continue in the Strait of Hormuz.

• European reserves are low going into winter.

Energy market update

Updated: Monday 5th October 2026 

What happened in the energy market last week?

Wholesale gas prices for the coming months rose about 3% last week, and gas for next summer reached its highest price since October 2022.

It was not a steady climb: gas fell about 5% on Tuesday to its lowest level in a month, then rose on each of the next three days. Electricity prices followed it higher.

Why?

• Geopolitics: More ships were hit in the Strait of Hormuz, the channel that around a fifth of the world's shipped gas passed through prior to February 2026. The US said it is sending a third aircraft carrier group to the region, according to news reports.
• Reserves: European gas storage is 71.5% full, the lowest for early October since records began in 2011, according to Gas Infrastructure Europe.
• Government buying: Germany ordered extra gas to be put into its storage sites before winter, which added another buyer to the market despite constrained supply.
• Weather: Mild weather helped reduce prices early in the week, but forecasts this week have turned cooler, which brings the first heating demand of the season.

What has not happened…

Nothing published points to a shortage of electricity in Britain this winter.

The National Energy System Operator (NESO), which runs the grid, said in June that it expects enough power to meet demand, and its full Winter Outlook is due this autumn.

Gas shipments to Europe in September were the highest in four months and supply from Norway has risen.

Prices also remain about 10% below their mid-September peak, and the years after this winter are still priced well below it.

In summary…

Prices fell sharply on Tuesday, recovered within two days and finished the week about 3% higher, driven by events in the Gulf and low European gas storage.

Supply into Britain is not the concern - cost is. Nobody can say which way the next move will be.

What this means for your business

Most businesses will not notice last week's move straight away.

If you are on a fixed contract, your unit price has not changed. If your contract passes through third-party charges, a government levy on electricity bills rose on 1st October and will appear on your next bill.

In terms of the wider conflict, nobody can accurately predict when - or if - shipping through the Strait of Hormuz will return to pre-conflict levels. As long as tensions continue, prices will remain elevated.

Knowing your renewal date and your options on contract length is something you can control, and we can help.

Remember: This is general market information and not advice. Your own circumstances will determine what is right for your business.

How we can help

The energy market is changing quickly. Keeping up with the news can be difficult while focusing on running your business and serving your customers 

We get it. We can support you.

Troo exists to help businesses like yours make sense of their energy needs, simplify complex information and make smart decisions that lead to real change and reduced costs.

We are not in the business of predicting which way the market will turn next - and we’d be cautious of anyone who claims to.

What we can do is look at your specific position, your usage and your renewal date, and set out the realistic options.

Book a free energy health check today for practical guidance on your business electricity, gas or water bills.