Energy market update: What UK businesses need to know this week

Energy markets are riding a rollercoaster in 2026 - and your business is paying for it.

We understand how it feels to be at the mercy of global events beyond your control. It's unnerving at best, and highly damaging to businesses at worst.

Geopolitical events in the Middle East continue to affect your small business from afar, but how long can we expect prices to remain high?

Troo CEO Andrew Richardson offers weekly guidance to help break down the major forces driving wholesale energy prices this week. 

TL;DR:

• US-Iran conflict remains the dominant driver of prices.

• European reserves are low going into winter.

• Markets are moving up and down sharply in a single week.

Energy market update

Updated: Monday 12th October 2026 

What happened in the energy market last week?

Wholesale energy prices rose over the week of 5th October to 9th October 2026, with gas for delivery this winter finishing 7.7% higher than on 2 October and electricity for the same period 7.3% higher.

Gas prices for 2027 rose faster still, with next summer’s contract up 9.8% to its highest level since October 2022.

Why?

• Shipping: Attacks on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow sea route that carries a large share of the world’s liquefied natural gas, continued through the week, with two tankers reported hit on 7th and 8th October by the UK Maritime Trade Operations centre, and an analyst told the market data service Montel on 9th October that traffic through the strait was falling after the attacks.

• Storage: Gas Infrastructure Europe, the industry body that publishes European storage data, reported stocks at about 73% full on 9th October, the lowest level for this point in the year since its records began in 2011 and around ten percentage points below the same date in 2025.

• Weather in the United States: Hurricane Isaias strengthened to category 2 off the US Gulf coast on 9th October, and analysts quoted by Montel said traders spent part of that day pricing in the risk that it would disrupt the export terminals supplying much of Europe’s imported gas.

• Norwegian supply: Unplanned outages at two Norwegian gas fields on 7th October trimmed supply from Norway, a major source of gas for Britain and Europe.

What has not happened…

Prices did not move in one direction all week.

Gas fell on 5th October, and fell again by about 3% during the morning of 9th October after news reports that the US president had ruled out military action against Iran before the 3rd November elections, before recovering later that day.

The weather added little pressure. Temperatures in Germany, Europe’s largest gas user, had averaged above normal for the week, while Hurricane Isaias was not expected to disrupt the gas export terminals in the end.

In a statement after a meeting of the EU gas coordination group on 8th October, the European Commission said the European gas system is flexible enough to meet demand this winter, while noting that how much gas Europe needs to import will depend on winter temperatures.

On electricity, the UK system operator NESO asked on the evening of 5th October for extra generation to cover the following evening, when wind output was forecast to be low, and then cancelled the request, as it has with every such notice issued this year.

In summary…

Gas and electricity prices for this winter rose by between seven and eight per cent in the week to 9th October, and gas prices for 2027 rose by more.

However, the market also showed it can fall quickly, dropping about 3% in a single morning on 9th October.

Volatility remains high.

What this means for your business

Most businesses will not see last week’s movement on this month’s invoice. If you are on a fixed contract, your unit rate does not change until it ends. It shows up at renewal, and renewal prices for this winter and for 2027 are higher than they were a week earlier.

If your contract expires within the next year, it is worth understanding where your renewal sits against the market, how different contract lengths compare, and how much of your bill is wholesale energy rather than network charges and government levies.

Remember: This is general market information and not advice. Your own circumstances will determine what is right for your business.

How we can help

The energy market is changing quickly. Keeping up with the news can be difficult while focusing on running your business and serving your customers 

We get it. We can support you.

Troo exists to help businesses like yours make sense of their energy needs, simplify complex information and make smart decisions that lead to real change and reduced costs.

We are not in the business of predicting which way the market will turn next - and we’d be cautious of anyone who claims to.

What we can do is look at your specific position, your usage and your renewal date, and set out the realistic options.

Book a free energy health check today for practical guidance on your business electricity, gas or water bills.