June saw extreme volatility across gas, power, carbon and oil markets, largely driven by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
Concerns over escalating conflict involving the US, Iran and Israel increased fears around energy security, LNG supplies and potential disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
As peace negotiations emerged and the key shipping routes started to reopen, both gas and oil prices fell sharply, although renewed tensions and ongoing supply concerns kept some geopolitical risk premium in the market.
But what does July have in store for businesses in the UK?
Troo energy trading expert Melvyn Wilson offers his guidance to help break down the major forces driving wholesale energy prices this week.
In this article:
Learn how global energy markets are moving in July 2026.
Understand the issues affecting business energy prices today.
Discover what your business can do to manage risk in an unstable world.
Energy markets enter July with a more balanced outlook.
Improving LNG supply, strong Norwegian gas flows and continued progress in US–Iran negotiations should help limit price rises.
However, risks remain.
European gas storage levels are still below last year's levels, Asian LNG demand remains strong, and any disruption to Middle East shipping routes could quickly reintroduce a geopolitical risk premium.
Overall, prices are expected to remain volatile but broadly range-bound, with a slight downward bias unless geopolitical tensions or supply disruptions re-emerge.
You can see the impact of the US/Iran conflict on gas prices from the end of February.
You can see the impact of the US/Iran conflict on power prices from the end of February.
The world is changing. It can be scary. You know you need to stay on top of the news, but that can be difficult while focusing on running your business and serving your customers.
We get it. We can support you.
Troo exists to help businesses like yours make sense of their energy needs, simplify complex information and make smart decisions that lead to real change and reduced costs.
We are not here to sell you a quick fix. We're here to understand what matters to you, offer clear advice, and take ownership of the hard parts, so energy becomes one less thing to worry about.
Book a free energy health check today for practical guidance on your business electricity, gas or water bills.
Melvyn Wilson: Jul 2, 2026 2:44:06 PM
June saw extreme volatility across gas, power, carbon and oil markets, largely driven by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
What if small businesses were able to approach energy suppliers with the weight and pedigree of a much larger organisation? Energy baskets can have...
Melvyn Wilson
