Energy market update: November 2026

November has arrived with energy prices well above where they started October after a month-long climb.

Global events have an impact on your business in the UK: it’s understandable to feel out of control.

Markets continue to wrestle with volatility as we approach winter, but where have they gone over the last month?

Troo CEO Andrew Richardson offers a monthly energy market update to review what happened in October and what is happening in November to help your business navigate this volatile market.

What happened in the energy market last month?

• Wholesale gas prices rose in every week of October.

• Prices finished the month about a third higher than they started, at their highest level since December 2022.

• The average wholesale cost of gas across the month was about 16% above September’s average.

• Electricity followed the same path, and prices for next summer and the following winter rose by a similar amount to short-term prices.

In summary…

October was a steady climb rather than a spike: gas rose for four weeks running to its highest level in almost four years, driven by the closed Strait of Hormuz, low European reserves, Norwegian outages and a colder, calmer turn in the weather, with electricity prices following gas.

What is driving energy prices?

• Geopolitics: The Strait of Hormuz remains closed, with near daily attacks on ships and mines reported through the month. President Donald Trump said on 9th October there would be no strike on Iran before the 3rd November elections. By 31st October, news reports carried both a US warning of possible strikes from 4th November and talks between Iran and Qatar in Doha.

• Reserves: European gas storage reached only about 75% full by late October. That is the lowest for the time of year since Gas Infrastructure Europe’s records began in 2011, and around eight percentage points below last year. Sites began to be used, rather than filled, in the final week.

• Outages: Unplanned stoppages at Norwegian gas fields and processing plants cut pipeline supply to Britain and Europe in the first and last weeks of the month, according to the Norwegian operator Gassco.

• Weather: A mild start gave way to colder forecasts and very low wind in the final week, which lifts heating demand and the amount of gas burned to make electricity. The price of electricity for next day delivery went from under £40 per MWh over the stormy weekend of 24th and 25th October to its highest since January 2025 on 29th October (Montel).

What happens next?

Energy markets continue to move sharply on headlines and sentiment. All eyes will be fixed on the US following the midterm elections.

Volatility is high and nobody knows which way the market will move next.

However, several key factors will determine the direction of prices in the weeks and months to come.

• Geopolitical conflict remains key: The Strait of Hormuz is still closed. Escalation in the region after 4th November could push prices higher, while progress in negotiations could bring them down, as several sharp one-day falls in October showed.

• Storage will be watched closely: European gas storage is at its lowest for the time of year since records began in 2011, and sites have started to be drawn down. The lower the stocks, the more sensitive prices are to cold weather and supply disruption.

• Winter weather will shape demand: Colder forecasts and very low wind in late October lifted prices. A cold, calm spell increases heating demand and the amount of gas burned to make electricity, while mild, windy weather would ease the pressure.

• Shipped gas could offer some relief: Arrivals of shipped gas in Europe rose by more than a quarter in the last week of October, and the gas system operator expects winter supply to be slightly higher than last year, helped by more shipped gas.

• Norwegian supply is a risk to monitor: Unplanned stoppages at Norwegian gas fields and processing plants cut pipeline supply in the first and last weeks of October. Further outages could add to price pressure.

The outlook remains highly uncertain. Businesses should be prepared for further volatility.

The risk this winter is one of price rather than availability, as both the electricity and gas system operators see no risk to supplies.

What else do I need to know?

Here are some of the key issues coming up in business energy beyond wholesale energy market prices:

• The Budget: The Budget on 28th October froze the main Climate Change Levy rate on electricity from April 2028 and committed to no new policy costs on bills until the 2027 Spending Review.

• BICS applications close this month: The British Industrial Competitiveness Scheme (BICS) is now open for applications - but the deadline is 30th November. Eligible businesses could reduce their electricity costs by 25%. Read our explainer guide to BICS for full details including how to check your eligibility.

What this means for your business

October showed again that a single headline can move prices several per cent in a day in either direction.

A business renewing in late October was quoted against wholesale gas prices about a third higher than one renewing at the start of the month, and electricity moved with it.

If you are on a fixed contract, your unit price did not change.

If you buy on a flexible or pass-through contract, where the price follows the market, October’s energy is likely to have cost more than September’s, particularly electricity in the final week.

The periods after this winter are still priced well below it.

Supply into Britain is not the concern, cost is. You cannot control market swings, but when your contract ends, and your options on length, are the parts you can control.

We can help. 

Remember: This is general market information and not advice. Your own circumstances will determine what is right for your business.

How we can help

The energy market is changing quickly. Keeping up with the news can be difficult while focusing on running your business and serving your customers.

We get it. We can support you.

Troo exists to help businesses like yours make sense of their energy needs, simplify complex information and make smart decisions that lead to real change and reduced costs.

We are not in the business of predicting which way the market will turn next - and we’d be cautious of anyone who claims to.

What we can do is look at your specific position, your usage and your renewal date, and set out the realistic options.

Book a free energy health check today for practical guidance on your business electricity, gas or water bills.