2 min read

What pub owners should know about energy price swings

What pub owners should know about energy price swings
What pub owners should know about energy price swings
3:14

Energy prices can feel like they move without warning. One month they are steady, the next they spike, and it is not always clear why.

If you are running a pub, you do not always get the luxury of waiting things out. From keeping fridges running and cellars cool, to kitchen demand and heating costs during quiet midweek nights, unpredictable energy pricing makes it harder to plan ahead, and harder to protect your margin.

The good news is that prices do not move completely at random. And knowing what affects them can help you avoid being caught out, whether you are renewing your contract or considering an extension to buy time.

 

What affects prices

Behind every energy bill is the wholesale market. That’s what suppliers pay for gas and electricity before it gets to you and it’s where most price shifts begin.

Here are the key things that drive prices up or down:

 

Gas supply / demand and storage

The UK relies on imported gas and is therefore susceptible to world market prices. If storage is full and supply routes are steady, prices may ease. If storage is low or supply is disrupted, prices tend to rise. If demand is higher than the available supply, prices again tend to increase.

 

Power generation

Strong wind or solar output can reduce the need for more expensive gas generation, helping to steady electricity prices. But if output drops or there are grid issues, prices can climb.

 

Geopolitics

Conflict, sanctions, import tariffs or risks to oil and gas shipping routes often trigger market uncertainty. Even the threat of disruption can push prices up.

 

Policy and levies

Government decisions around tax, net zero policies, subsidies and energy reform influence long term prices and supplier behaviour.

 

Timing and your options

There is no perfect time of year to renew a contract. The idea that winter means high prices and summer means low does not always hold up. It depends on the market conditions at the time you are looking.

If your contract ends in the next twelve – twenty four months, it is worth keeping an eye on the market now. Acting early can sometimes lock in better rates.

If your renewal is closer, you might need to fix soon, wait or ask about an extension. Some pub owners find that extending by a few months gives them breathing space during peak periods or slower seasons.

And if you are already out of contract, you are likely on a rollover or deemed rate, which usually costs more and is worth reviewing quickly.

 

What to keep an eye on

You do not need to track the market every day. But staying aware of a few key signals can help:

  • Gas storage levels in the UK and Europe
  • Reports of disruption to supply or shipping
  • Low renewable output forecasts in UK and Europe
  • Announcements about policy or tax changes

These give early clues about where prices might head and help shape smarter decisions.

If you would rather not track this yourself, Troo can help. We follow the market daily and explain what it means for your business in plain terms. That way, you can make confident choices, whether that is a renewal, an extension, or knowing when to wait.

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