Energy markets are riding a rollercoaster in 2026 - and your business is paying for it.
We understand how it feels to be at the mercy of global events beyond your control. It's an unnerving situation at best, highly damaging for business at worst.
Geopolitical events in the Middle East continue to affect your small business from afar, but how long can we expect prices to remain high?
Troo energy trading expert Melvyn Wilson offers weekly guidance to help break down the major forces driving wholesale energy prices this week.
TL;DR:
US-Iran conflict remains the dominant driver of prices.
Peace talks remain slow and fragile, keeping prices stubbornly high.
Liquefied natural gas (LNG) supply and storage remains down.
Week commencing Monday 6th July 2026
Prices rose over the course of the week, driven by a combination of geopolitical risk, predominantly US-Iran relations, ongoing concerns over LNG flows through the Strait of Hormuz and increasingly confident forecasts of more European heatwaves.
Strong flows from Norway offered some relief but markets remain strained due to ongoing concerns over LNG availability.
Overall, the market focus has shifted from immediate supply adequacy toward winter preparedness and the potential tight supply of global LNG later in the year
Geopolitical events: US-Iran peace remains a key driver of prices, but peace talks have made slow progress during the mourning period for Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
Looking ahead, market attention will remain firmly focused on developments in the Middle East, particularly the progress of US-Iran negotiations and any implications for shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
At the same time, forecasts for sustained hot weather across Europe are expected to support power demand and gas consumption through July.
While strong Norwegian supply and the possibility of US-Iranian diplomatic progress could ease prices, concerns over LNG availability, below-average storage levels and growing global competition for supply could keep prices up.
Volatility is expected to remain high as traders balance geopolitical risks against underlying supply and demand fundamentals heading into the second half of summer.
Businesses approaching their contract renewal may want to monitor the market closely over the coming weeks, particularly if geopolitical tensions re-escalate.
Those on flexible contracts should prepare for continued volatility heading into the second half of 2026 despite positive indicators.
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